![]() ![]() This will raise the potential for widespread and possibly damaging winds well beyond what was observed in the previous storm. ![]() Unlike the previous event, this AR will be associated with a rapidly deepening surface low rather close to the NorCal coast. Here’s a quick overview:Ī moderate to strong atmospheric river, once again with deep subtropical origins (i.e., the “Pineapple Express”) will make landfall in northern and/or central California–bringing a period of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to a wider swath of the state than the Friday event (i.e., some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will extend into most of SoCal as well). ![]() There is an unusual amount of uncertainty for such a short-range forecast regarding exactly how the Mon-Tue atmospheric river will look at the point of landfall, and this has some pretty consequential implications for flood and wind damage-related impacts. Not just for the calendar date, but for *any* date! #CAwx #CAwater /FYmFXqs2yL- Daniel Swain March 12, 2023Īnother moderate to strong atmospheric river Mon-Tue may produce “outsized” flood and wind impacts due to extremely wet antecedent conditions As of this weekend, the Southern Sierra now appears to have largest snowpack in recorded history (as measured by snow water equivalent, or SWE). Additional isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon, posing hazards in their own right but also keeping soils saturated ahead of the next big storm.īrief thread about…snow. Yesterday, several areas of thunderstorms developed in the Central Valley, including isolated true “supercell” thunderstorms that ultimately produced damaging large hail, flash flooding, and at least one confirmed tornado in the Central Valley and lower Sierra foothills.
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